Peter Webb - Bet Angel - My first year of trading on Betfair for a living

Peter Webb - Bet Angel - My first year of trading on Betfair for a living
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    so let me take you back nearly two decades two decades ago I was still in a
    normal job for want of a better word but I had this dream of trading on Betfair
    for a living and it took a few steps to get to that particular point but let me
    tell you about my first year of trading on bed fare please like and comment on
    the video below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more
    of them in the future if you're interested in learning to trade
    successfully in sports then why not visit the better angel Academy where we
    have more detailed videos so in a previous video I had talked about you
    know what you're interested in my first year on Betfair so that's what I'm going
    to talk about in this video and I'm gonna show you or give you some insight
    into stuff that was going on around that time and how things evolved from there
    now it's important to remember that the first year that I had on their phone
    will probably be very different from yours
    because betting exchanges weren't very well known strategies weren't very well
    known there was no software and there are all sorts of other mitigating
    factors as well if you start trading now you're going to be several steps up
    because there's information available as liquidity on the exchanges the software
    available there's quite a few strategies and tactics out there although some of
    them I do question but you know you have several steps on however you know the
    sort of experience that you'll go through will probably be similar to the
    one that I went through I made the leap out of a normal job into trading
    full-time at a time when nobody did that and everybody thought I was completely
    crazy however I obviously had the foresight to be able to sort of get
    involved and to give it a good go but let me talk you through the experience
    of what happens how I did and how things sort of evolved from there so
    necessarily the first place you up start is with the launch of Betfair you you
    could actually wind back prior to the launch because my interest in betting
    exchanges came around from being involved with an internet company an
    internet service provider I was involved with an Internet service brighter in the
    midnight I've been messing around on Presnell
    then CompuServe and then the internet for a large number of years and I could
    see what was about to happen with the internet and I throw out my life you
    know I've been quite good at catching these waves and repeatedly I've been
    looking at technology and advances and trying to get involved with them
    at early stages however and even with the Internet service provider you know
    it's not that easy having a good idea is one thing actually doing something about
    it is another and making it a success is something you know completely different
    altogether so the Internet service provider could see what the internet was
    tick knew all about it tick understood the technology tick but the picking
    right company cross doing it at the right time cross making it work across
    there didn't work out for me unfortunately um however you know
    everything that you do will catapult you forward probably in ways that you don't
    understand so my involvement with Internet related stuff allowed me to
    merge that into other knowledge that I had in previous jobs and push myself in
    the direction of dealing with companies that were involved with the Internet and
    part of that was going around looking at technologies that were developing and of
    course one of those emergent technologies was peer to peer networks
    and one of those peer to peer networks was the betting exchange so I knew about
    betting exchanges before they had even been created but when the betting
    exchanges came online I joined up with them immediately and that was how I got
    started I was the early adopter Betfair open for business on the seventh of the
    six I have covered this in some other videos but they did a press release
    talking about the death of the bookie and how peer-to-peer technology was
    going to replace the bookie if you look at all of the technology that's out
    there across the internet that's more or less what it's done it's sort of
    collapse the old model of having loads of intermediate trees into you and the
    company and they're basically the proposition was that's what was going to
    happen to the betting market so yeah Betfair open for business on the 7th of
    signal that's when they have fish launched and it took me precisely 11
    days to set up an account with them so but but the thing is you know think
    about this as well it wasn't just bet fair that I said something I can with I
    set them up with just about everybody that had the word internet on it or in
    those days they used to prefix everything with an E
    it was Eason II whatever so yeah I basically joined up to all these
    services I had no idea who the winner was going to be at that particular point
    in time but I signed up too and and when you look back I mean actually I
    preferred there was a platform out there called flutter and the concept of
    flutter was you actually communicate with the person that you're play
    something better so you place a bet upon England you need some say England going
    to absolutely you know crush their opponents today and then somebody you
    would place the counter bet where they put a little note on there going no
    they're not you know the Spain are far too strong or something and then those
    two bets would get matched and you would exchange a little note with it as well
    and I quite like that added a little bit of something to with the bets that you
    were placing however you know you had flutter and you had bet fair both of
    them were quite big at that particular moment in time but Betfair took over
    flutter I think technically it was a merger but like with a lot of mergers
    you tend to have in a bigger partner and the bigger partner was bet fair so that
    was probably one of the most strategically important things that
    happened early on in the industry was bet fair taking out flutter bet fair
    went off and raised money got some additional funding and it was that that
    they used to buy flutter and that's the you find that a lot with startups that
    if you have more funding than your opponent then you can either take them
    out without to compete them that's what happened very early on within the
    betting exchange industry there were hundreds of these models and and they
    all started to sort of consolidate back into a smaller number and some of them
    had a bumpy path and some of them didn't so yeah there were many many many around
    at that particular moment of time and what you see now in the market are the
    survivors because of all the hundreds that started gradually over time lots
    have gone out of business merged closed whatever and what you see now are the
    the winners in that very long attritional game
    so yeah I preferred flutter but where I started really was with our Bing so when
    you look at our Bing you tends to if you look at some of the early spreadsheets
    that I'd done what I was doing was basically matching off of positions on
    the exchange with bookmakers and I was doing that on flutter I was doing it on
    Beth I was doing it on many different platforms across you know everywhere
    that I could and that was the most obvious place to start with me and when
    we look at what I was doing around this particular period it was pretty similar
    to what you see sort of with match betting apart from you know I was doing
    our IRB and one of the issues that you have with that is that very often you
    can find that a there is risk involved within that in terms of people not
    willing to take your bets or yeah amending terms or odds after the
    situation or not paying out I was one of the biggest problems I had when I was
    our thing was both bookmakers not paying out refusing to pay out delaying
    payments some things never changed today but it was really still a pipe dream
    back in 2000 I was doing all of this sort of work having between difference
    entities but really seriously was I thinking about you know really going
    full-time not particularly because I had a decent job and when you have a decent
    job and all of those things and a young family it's not something that you
    really think seriously about doing it's it's a pipe treatment something that's
    up there did you sort of think about it could be possible if there was scale but
    there wasn't even see how there's no liquidity on the exchanges back then so
    it was not really an opportunity the only opportunity would have been to work
    for one of these companies and hope that they turn into a much bigger one but as
    I've said before even that carries quite a bit of risk so the big breakthrough
    came really in 2001 when during the budget Gordon Brown stood up and
    abolished betting duty a lot because of the internet a lot of bets were being
    taken away from the on course activity and through establish outlets and a lot
    of them were going offshore to avoid betting duties so as a
    consequence there was a mismatch in the market for the Chancellor at that time
    decided to address that mismatch and abolished a betting duty so that for me
    was a big shout out to the fact that there was a lot of potential from this
    particular particular period going on and also when you look at the growth the
    exchanges were seen you could see that there was potential to go there now
    there's an important lesson for you here because it doesn't matter what you do at
    any point in your life they're always going to be risks attached and it's
    natural for you and for your mind the psychology behind it to fear change and
    to fear big changes so leaving a job to do this full-time is a massive
    commitment and also it carries risks as well but one of the things that I've
    learnt over time is they're very often not doing something carries more risk
    and has longer-term consequences that are more negative so it's more important
    to put that into perspective people often focus too much on the negative and
    forget the positive and around this time you know I was maturing within my career
    and I basically started at a very low level in my career and gradually worked
    my way up and up and up to bigger and bigger levels and I was getting pretty
    well paid for doing that job Bera minuses 20 odd years ago we're talking
    early 2000s here I was getting paid particularly well for the job that I was
    doing although the job itself was quite a tough job and involved a lot of a lot
    of things so I wouldn't say that it was an easy job
    but I'd sort of reached the point in my career that I felt I sort of pushed as
    far as I could and for many years that always wanted to do my own thing and I'd
    also you know you would work for a company you'd see an opportunity you
    would help them exploit that opportunity but then you would reflect and look back
    and you sort of think well I did most of that you know I did a lot of work behind
    that I created the opportunity and you end up with that feeling that you're
    always doing that for somebody else and I began to lose the fear for going out
    and trying something on my own I just needed an opportunity to really go for
    it full time and it turned out that because of
    all of those things reaching a point at that particular moment in time that
    opportunity were spec fare bizarrely but of course everybody thought that that
    was you know just the silliest thing that they ever heard and of course
    nobody had ever done this before and you know it was going to be a really big
    jump at this particular point in my career I had a young family I was
    getting paid particularly well and there I was going to abandon it all for
    something that you know just seemed absolutely ludicrous at the time -
    absolutely everybody there was very few people that could understand what I was
    going on about so yeah I made that big jump and decided that I should go out
    and make a go of it and I'd sort of thought that if it didn't work out but
    then because I'd held senior positions and stuff before it probably wouldn't be
    a problem getting back into a role and also I felt I needed to make a few life
    choices at that point because when you do a big job is sort of swallows up
    everything absolutely everything from dawn until dusk almost seven days a week
    it's impossible to do a big job with a decent salary without having to throw
    all of that commitment behind it but that's actually no different from
    working for yourself or running your own business it really is no different apart
    from you get a bit of autonomy you live and die by your own decisions you're not
    subject to internal politics all of those things and that's what was driving
    my decision really as I thought you know if I'm gonna do something I really need
    to do something you know all of these opportunities I've seen all these
    companies have worked for all of the work that I've done why you know
    shouldn't I just give it a go myself why would I not do that so I did do it but
    the markets were still sort of relatively immature and also my trading
    was pretty immature as well so I had a small bank to start with because of my
    previous experience with football I knew the football markets pretty well felt
    that I could probably get a bit of an edge by doing something in football so
    you know football was one of the places that I started trading on and that was
    okay but nothing spectacular I didn't have a particularly big Bank I started
    from pretty much zero I think I initially funded my account with the
    bath and pound but yeah I was working in
    those markets doing small trades and teasing characteristic market you've got
    to remember now that those markets back then were nothing like the markets that
    you see now they were quite immature they weren't particularly liquid and you
    know there was a lot of I'm just trying to think how I best summarized it they
    probably say that they are nothing like they are now in terms of the way that
    they function and work but the markets got much more competitive as time has
    gone on but there's much more liquidity so there are many more niches in the
    markets nowadays and there weren't when I was around there's three or four
    vanilla strategies that you could use and you would have to do them to the
    best of your ability and see if you could squeeze some money out of the
    market now the funny thing is I started writing about trading and I was doing
    presentations at financial exhibitions around the 2004 2005 period but when you
    look at a lot of the strategies that people talk about now they come from
    that era there's been very little original content that I've seen in the
    last few years that tells me that there are people out there that are being
    particularly progressive because you know I recognize a lot of what I was
    saying in 2004 2005 in videos articles that I see nowadays which is which is
    quite weird really because obviously over that period of time I've developed
    progressed and matured and the interesting thing is that have a look at
    how it changes in terms of the way that I have progressed over a period of time
    so when you look at some of the early traits that I've done you sort of see a
    bit of everything because a bit of horse racing and as I've said in some previous
    videos I used to do a lot of a national markets I did a lot of financial market
    trading when I first went full-time and that was to see you know I sort of
    hedged my bets about for want of a better word and if you I was doing a bit
    of writing for a financial magazine I was doing a bit of trading on financials
    and I was also doing the bet fair trading stuff as well but the
    interesting thing is because of my link between the two if you look at those
    piell's around that period you'll find that
    our financial markets pianos within there and the interesting and curious
    thing about that is watch how it changes because there's a little bit of racing
    there's some football in there and then there's financial markets trading but if
    we then move forward a little bit then you can see that the more racing is
    coming into the mix so why was it that I got interest in racing I knew nothing
    about racing I had no specialist knowledge but the market was absolutely
    huge it was billions and all of the other markets I was in like the
    financials were really not doing a great deal of money I mean if you look at a
    detailed ledger that I kept for my financial markets trading stuff on their
    fair you'll see that I was still doing quite a lot of money you know there's
    about 200,000 pounds staked through that particular market its profitable you can
    see that I'm measuring various different aspects of the market and the way that
    I'm actively trading it you could probably pick out the sort of strategy
    that I was using there but the problem with that market is it didn't really
    grow and I kept looking at racing and racing was constantly in front of me on
    the markets that's obviously where a lot of money was bet and the markets are
    actually huge so I knew that I had to get involved with racing um so you know
    wined Ford a couple of years later and you can see that my P&L on that day
    there was no football there was no financial stuff it was all racing
    because I knew if I sucked racing and I could effectively trade racing which was
    the biggest market by far then I would be able to make a living just doing that
    just by effectively gambling on racing so that was my motivation for moving
    into racing of course now there are many different markets that you can pursue
    that you have quite a lot of liquidity Racing is still right up there but there
    are plenty of markets that you can choose if you want to carve out a niche
    in that particular market but what happens to me was as I started to focus
    more and more on those particular markets everything began to grow a
    little bit but also my skill and knowledge within that market started to
    grow so I went from this process of not making any money at all
    I'm just dabbling around in the markets trying to what figure out what on earth
    was going on with them to getting a bit more knowledge to being able to trade
    them more effectively and then it was a case of generally becoming more
    consistent but also you know you started to up the targets bit so you know first
    of all it was like just try and break even try not to lose any money then it
    was a case of I wonder if I can just squeeze a hundred pounds a day out of
    these markets and then it was when you break that barrier I was like I wonder
    if I could get 500 and then you think I wonder if I can do a thousand a day but
    of course you know all of the targets mix and match and change and flop around
    depending upon what you're attempting to do and how you're attempting to do it
    and what stage of the career you're at and whether it's your normal career
    trading career that's all going to be different for every single person when
    you first start out trading but I remember you know Adam Todd's was
    posting piell's talking about doing twenty thousand a year and at that
    particular point I was trying to get about twenty grand a month because I
    thought you know how hard and far can i push this how you know much can I lift
    this what can I achieve how can you know how can I achieve something special I
    didn't want to just be able to trade I wanted to do something special something
    that somebody had never done before and that's pretty much been my mantra all
    the way through my entire career discovering new things getting to grips
    with what I can see in front of me and trying to push the boundaries of what's
    possible as much as I possibly can so you know when you look at the equity
    curve for my first year you know you could count my first year on bear fur as
    being any one of the things that I've talked about already it could be when I
    first joined in which case that would be quite disappointing PNL it could be from
    you know when I first went full-time which would be a little bit better or it
    could be when I started trading racing full-time but I count the first year
    really as being when I decided to start doing it seriously and when I'd left my
    job now I don't have records for the first 24 weeks or so or detailed records
    because I was messing around effectively but if you look at this equity curve
    that I'm about to put up what you'll see is that for the first part of that year
    I did 16 grand and then you can see the equity
    curve exploded effectively upwards from there and that was when I started to do
    trading a bit more seriously and looking at racing and other sports and trying to
    bring in more things from the mix but the interesting thing about the graph is
    this was just the start because this was pre bet angel and the more I traded and
    the more effort I throw into it the more I could see what the potential
    opportunities for I just needed a platform on which to do them so this was
    just the start if we wind the clock fort and start looking at when I was getting
    most fists sophisticated and I really had sussed what was going on with racing
    and then throwing in bet angel into the mix then everything goes stratospheric
    from that particular point onwards because then a whole range of strategies
    open up to me and things just became generally that much bigger so yeah you
    know when I first started I remember hedging my bets a little bit I didn't
    have any preconception of what I wanted to do but the only thing that drove me
    really was that I just left a really well-paid job so I you know sure as hell
    needed to make up the income somehow so that was a motivating factor for me when
    I first started but really the first year was a case of me finding my feet
    trying to do something consistently and then sort of starting to build from
    there but the interesting thing that I found
    was that always worried about what could go wrong
    prior to me making that leap but in fact what actually happened was when I
    actually sat down and started doing it all these opportunities open up in front
    of me and then you know of course you throw bet angel into the mix and then
    suddenly even more opportunities opened up so in hindsight the thing that I was
    worried about the most was you know it being a failure and this big leap being
    an absolute disaster but what I hadn't thought about was the other side of the
    equation all of the things that I would discover as soon as I started doing it
    seriously and the fact is when you do start doing something seriously in you
    throw love energy and effort into it and you'll really begin to find the true
    opportunity and up until that point there's no way that you can ever quanta
    or write a nice little business plan or tell you about it it's only when you
    actually start doing it and start making progress towards those goals that you
    really begin to understand where the opportunity is so anyway I hope that was
    interesting for you but that's a reflection on my first year of bed fair
    trading and how I got there
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